Ravens in Crisis: Analyzing Baltimore's 1-3 Start and Path Forward

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October 3, 2025

The Baltimore Ravens are experiencing their worst start to a season in nearly a decade. After dropping to 1-3 following a blowout loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4, the franchise that has built its identity on elite quarterback play, dominant rushing attack, and stingy defense finds all three pillars crumbling simultaneously. With a mounting injury crisis and difficult schedule ahead, the question isn't just what went wrong - it's whether Baltimore can salvage their season.

The Nightmare Start

Baltimore's descent has been swift and brutal. Following debilitating losses to the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 and Detroit Lions in Week 3, the Ravens now sit tied with the Cleveland Browns - the only team they've beaten - at the bottom of the AFC North. This marks their first 1-3 start since 2015, when they finished 5-11.

The statistics paint a troubling picture. Baltimore ranks 21st in offensive success rate and 26th in defensive success rate. Lamar Jackson, typically among the league's elite, has been middle-of-the-pack in well-thrown rate and catchable thrown-ball rate. The team that once epitomized physical dominance now looks vulnerable on both sides of the ball.

The Injury Catastrophe

Week 4's loss to Kansas City transformed a difficult situation into a potential disaster. Jackson left late in the game with a hamstring injury and is expected to miss at least two games. Defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike suffered a season-ending neck injury - a devastating blow to the defensive line. Left tackle Ronnie Stanley, cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey, Jaire Alexander and Nate Wiggins, and linebacker Roquan Smith all sustained potentially multi-week injuries.

These aren't role players - they're foundational pieces. According to team ratings, without Madubuike, Smith, Humphrey and Wiggins, Baltimore's defensive team rating plummets from 11th to 29th.

Has Lamar Jackson Plateaued?

While Jackson boasts 10 touchdown passes against just one interception through four games, his advanced metrics reveal concerning stagnation. More troubling is his declining effectiveness as a runner - historically his greatest weapon.

Jackson's 6.33 yards per carry on designed runs and 5.78 yards per carry on scrambles represent his lowest marks since 2023. His 41.5 rushing yards per game is a career low. Whether by design or necessity, Jackson is using his legs less frequently and less effectively than at any point in his career.

The hamstring injury compounds these concerns. Even when Jackson returns, the ailment could hamper his explosiveness for the remainder of the season - devastating news for an offense already struggling to establish its ground game.

Derrick Henry's Sudden Decline

After rushing for nearly 2,000 yards with a league-best 16 touchdowns in 2024, Henry looked vintage in Week 1 with 169 yards and two touchdowns against Buffalo. But that performance now appears to be an outlier rather than a preview.

Henry hasn't reached 50 rushing yards since the opener and is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry over the past three games. The contrast is stark: in Week 1, Henry averaged 7.65 yards per carry with 2.67 yards after contact. In Weeks 2-4, those numbers plummeted to 3.73 yards per carry and 1.35 yards after contact.

Baltimore entered 2025 with the 27th-ranked run-blocking unit according to team ratings. After Week 4, they rank 25th in run success rate at 32.4% - the worst of the Jackson era. Even a player of Henry's caliber struggles when facing stacked boxes without the threat of Jackson's mobility and with subpar blocking up front.

The combination of deteriorating run blocking, a less mobile Jackson, and an aging running back has created a perfect storm that's neutralized what was supposed to be one of the league's most fearsome ground attacks.

The Depleted Defense

Baltimore's defensive collapse accelerated after surrendering 16 points in the final four minutes of their Week 1 loss to Buffalo. The Ravens now rank 26th in overall defensive success rate, 26th in run defense success rate, and 19th in pass defense success rate.

Madubuike's injury represents the biggest blow. The ninth-best run defender among interior defensive linemen per NFL ELO ratings, Madubuike posted a 25.0% pressure rate and 35.0% run disruption rate - ranking seventh and fifth respectively among interior linemen with qualifying snap counts. His absence has dropped Baltimore's pass-rush rating to the bottom five and run defense to the bottom eight.

The secondary faces equal devastation. The unit ranked third in team rating heading into the season and first after four weeks. Without Humphrey and possibly Wiggins, the Ravens' pass defensive rating has cratered to 24th. What was projected as one of the league's better defenses will struggle significantly until key players return.

The Path Forward

The Ravens face a critical crossroads. While they maintain a 58.1% chance to make the playoffs according to the Opta supercomputer, their probability of winning the AFC North has plummeted to just 27.6%. Their most realistic path to the postseason runs through a wild-card berth - requiring a dramatic turnaround.

The next two games against the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Rams - both playoff teams from 2024 - will be season-defining. The broader schedule offers some hope, with Baltimore facing the 24th-hardest remaining strength of schedule (.471 combined opponent win percentage). However, they still must face the Pittsburgh Steelers twice, Cleveland again, and quality defenses in Minnesota and Green Bay.

Two philosophical approaches exist: tank for draft position and evaluate younger players, or fight through adversity while waiting for players to heal. Given the AFC North's competitiveness, stealing victories during this difficult stretch could keep playoff hopes alive.

Conclusion

The Ravens' 2025 season hangs in the balance. Their three foundational pillars - explosive quarterback play, dominant rushing attack, and stingy defense - have simultaneously crumbled. Jackson's mobility questions, Henry's sudden decline, and catastrophic injuries have transformed a Super Bowl contender into a team fighting for respectability.

Unless Baltimore rediscovers its identity quickly, this season risks spiraling from disappointing to disastrous. The franchise's championship window, already narrowing, could slam shut if they can't navigate this crisis. For bettors, the Ravens represent significant risk until they demonstrate consistent improvement across all three phases.

The coming weeks will determine whether Baltimore can salvage their season or if 2025 becomes a lost year in what should be Jackson's prime. Right now, the future looks bleak.

Thanks to Stats Perform for the data

Photo: sharpfootballanalysis.com

More information:24live.com