NFL WEEK 7 PREDICTIONS: WHEN THE SUPERCOMPUTER SPEAKS, VEGAS LISTENS

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Welcome to Week 7 of the 2025 NFL season, where the playoff picture is starting to crystallize, underdogs are making noise, and our trusty Opta supercomputer is working overtime to crunch the numbers on every single matchup.

If you've been following along this season, you know the drill. We feed mountains of data into our supercomputer – everything from offensive efficiency to defensive breakdowns, injury reports to weather conditions, historical matchups to current form – and it spits out cold, hard win probabilities.

No emotions. No hot takes. No "my gut says..." Just pure, unadulterated statistical analysis.

And this week? The numbers are telling some fascinating stories.

THE BIG PICTURE: WHO'S RISING, WHO'S FALLING?

Before we dive into individual games, let's zoom out and look at the conference landscapes. Because if Week 7 has taught us anything, it's that the cream is starting to rise to the top.

In the AFC, five teams have separated themselves from the pack according to our supercomputer: the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Indianapolis Colts. Notice anyone missing? Yeah, we're looking at you, Miami and Cleveland.

The NFC is equally intriguing, with the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers leading the charge. Right behind them are the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The NFC might be the more competitive conference this year – or at least the deeper one.

Now, let's get into the meat of Week 7. Because while conferences are won over 17 weeks, games are won in 60 minutes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: WHEN LEGENDS COLLIDE (SORT OF)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (4-1) AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (2-4)

Opta Win Probability: Steelers 63.4%
Spread: Steelers -5.5
The Story: Aaron Rodgers vs. Joe Flacco – aka the Battle of the Fortysomethings

Let's be real: nobody saw this coming at the start of the season. Aaron Rodgers, now with the Steelers, and Joe Flacco, somehow still relevant and starting for the Bengals, facing off in a Thursday night showdown.

Here's the wild stat: Rodgers and Flacco are the first pair of 40+ year old starting quarterbacks to face off since Tom Brady and Drew Brees in the 2020 AFC divisional round. That's legendary company, even if both quarterbacks are well past their primes.

But here's what makes this interesting: Flacco is the only player in NFL history with 5,000+ career passing yards versus the Steelers. He's seen every defensive scheme Pittsburgh can throw at him, and Pittsburgh has seen every vintage Flacco dragon throw.

The Verdict: The supercomputer gives Pittsburgh a nearly two-thirds probability of winning, and that spread of -5.5 looks about right. The Steelers are the better team right now, plain and simple. But never count out playoff Flacco energy, even if it's only October.

LONDON CALLING: RAMS VS. JAGUARS ACROSS THE POND

LOS ANGELES RAMS (4-2) VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (4-2) IN LONDON

Opta Win Probability: Rams 57.9%
Spread: Rams -3.0
The Story: Matthew Stafford's personal playground

If you're a Jaguars fan, here's a stat that'll keep you up at night: Matthew Stafford is 4-0 in his career against Jacksonville. The only quarterbacks with longer win streaks to start their careers against the Jags are Deshaun Watson (seven) and Tom Brady (five).

London games are always weird. The time zone, the travel, the different atmosphere – it all adds up to unpredictability. But Stafford has been dealing with weird his entire career, from the Detroit years to now anchoring a Rams team that refuses to rebuild.

Both teams sit at 4-2, which makes this essentially a playoff preview in Week 7. The winner stays in the thick of the conference race; the loser starts sweating.

The Verdict: A 57.9% probability for the Rams is basically saying "we think they'll win, but it'll be close." That -3.0 spread tells the same story. This is a coin flip with a slight lean toward LA. In London. At 9:30 AM ET. What could go wrong?

THE BATTLE OF THE BASEMENT: DOLPHINS AT BROWNS

MIAMI DOLPHINS (1-5) AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (1-5)

Opta Win Probability: Browns 60.9%
Spread: Browns -2.5
The Story: Someone has to win, right?

This is the kind of game that sounds depressing on paper – two 1-5 teams desperately searching for identity, direction, and basic competence. But here's the thing about NFL football: every game matters, even when both teams are terrible.

For Miami, life after Tyreek Hill (who's on IR for the season) has been brutal. For Cleveland, life with rookie quarterbacks and an injured offensive line has been equally painful.

Historical note: Cleveland holds a 7-6 edge over Miami at home and has outscored the Dolphins by exactly one point in those meetings. Talk about razor-thin margins. The Browns have also recorded four or more sacks in four straight home games in this series dating back to 2011.

The Verdict: The Browns at 60.9% feels generous, but home field matters. Both teams are desperate, but Cleveland is slightly less desperate. Slightly. This is the kind of game where the under looks tempting, the spread looks dicey, and everyone watching regrets their life choices by the fourth quarter.

DAVID VS. GOLIATH: RAIDERS AT CHIEFS

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2-4) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (3-3)

Opta Win Probability: Chiefs 84.0%
Spread: Chiefs -11.5
The Story: When 84% feels low

An 84% win probability is the supercomputer's way of saying "barring a miracle, Kansas City wins this game." And that -11.5 spread? That's Vegas saying the same thing but with slightly less confidence.

Here's what makes this interesting: The Raiders defense has allowed fewer than 400 total net yards in seven consecutive matchups versus the Chiefs offense. That's remarkable consistency from a Raiders team that's been anything but consistent this season.

But here's the problem: you can have the best defense in the world, and it doesn't matter if your offense can't score. And the Raiders offense has been... let's call it "struggling" to be kind.

Kansas City is 3-3, which by their standards is basically a crisis. Patrick Mahomes doesn't lose six games in a row. Ever. The Chiefs are angry, at home, and facing a division rival they've historically dominated.

The Verdict: If you're betting Raiders +11.5, you're either a diehard Vegas fan or you're chasing a very specific narrative about Kansas City being "vulnerable." The supercomputer sees this as a blowout, and I'm inclined to agree.

NFC HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT: EAGLES AT VIKINGS

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-2) AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (3-2)

Opta Win Probability: Eagles 55.1%
Spread: Eagles -1.5
The Story: When "basically a coin flip" is actually the most accurate description

A 55.1% probability is the supercomputer's version of a shrug. "Could go either way," it's saying. "But if we HAD to pick, we'd lean Eagles."

That -1.5 spread tells you everything – this is as close to a pick'em as you can get without actually being a pick'em. And historically, these games have been decided by home field: the home team has won 12 of the last 15 matchups between these two teams.

So who has home field? Minnesota. And what's the Vikings' record at home in this series? 4-1 in the last five home games.

Both teams are good. Both quarterbacks (whoever is starting for each team) are capable of taking over games. Both defenses can get stops when needed. This is the kind of game decided by a field goal with seconds remaining, probably after a controversial penalty call.

The Verdict: The supercomputer gives Philadelphia a slight edge, but if you're betting this game, you're basically flipping a coin and hoping variance falls your way. The over might be the smarter play.

SHOCKING DEVELOPMENT: JETS STILL WINLESS

CAROLINA PANTHERS (3-3) AT NEW YORK JETS (0-6)

Opta Win Probability: Panthers 52.1%
Spread: Panthers -1.5
The Story: The Jets are who we thought they were

0-6. Zero wins in six games. The New York Jets are currently the worst team in football, and they're not even close to turning things around.

Here's a devastating stat: The Jets are 6-16 against NFC South opponents since the divisional realignment in 2002 – the worst record by any NFL team versus that division over that span. They haven't beaten an NFC South team since Week 9 of 2013 when they faced the Saints.

Carolina, meanwhile, is a perfectly mediocre 3-3 team that's competitive but not dominant. The Panthers are the kind of team that beats bad teams and loses to good ones. Lucky for them, the Jets are very, very bad.

The Verdict: A 52.1% win probability for Carolina is almost disrespectful to how bad the Jets are. This should be closer to 65-70%. If the Jets somehow win this game, it would be one of the biggest upsets of the season. Don't hold your breath.

MIKE VRABEL HOMECOMING: PATRIOTS AT TITANS

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-2) AT TENNESSEE TITANS (1-5)

Opta Win Probability: Patriots 68.3%
Spread: Patriots -7.0
The Story: The return of the prodigal coach

Mike Vrabel is back in Nashville, but this time he's wearing Patriots colors. And Tennessee? They're 1-5 and spiraling.

Vrabel had 56 career wins for the Titans as head coach (including postseason). Only Jeff Fisher (147) and Bum Phillips (59) have more in franchise history. Now he's on the opposite sideline, trying to bury his former team.

Through six games with New England, Vrabel's four wins are tied for the second-most by a Patriots coach at this point in their tenure (Pete Carroll had five). Bill Belichick comparisons are premature, but the early returns are promising.

The Verdict: The Patriots should handle business here. The Titans are too injured, too young, and too depleted to compete with a well-coached team. That -7.0 spread feels about right – New England wins comfortably but not overwhelmingly.

MILE HIGH MISMATCH: GIANTS AT BRONCOS

NEW YORK GIANTS (2-4) AT DENVER BRONCOS (4-2)

Opta Win Probability: Broncos 73.0%
Spread: Broncos -7.0
The Story: Denver's defense is elite, and here's proof

The Broncos held the Jets to minus-10 net passing yards in Week 6 in London. Read that again: minus ten yards passing. That's the fewest net passing yards Denver has ever allowed in franchise history, including postseason.

On the season, Denver ranks third in defensive EVE (efficiency vs. expected) at -0.77, behind only the Packers (-1.37) and Texans (-0.95). Translation: their defense is making offenses look worse than they should.

The Giants, meanwhile, are struggling. Jaxson Dart is trying, but he's a rookie quarterback behind a porous offensive line facing one of the league's best defenses. This is a recipe for disaster.

The Verdict: Broncos -7.0 feels light. The supercomputer gives Denver a 73% win probability, which in close games would suggest a larger spread. Denver should win this game by double digits.

COLTS-CHARGERS: THE MOST EVENLY MATCHED GAME OF THE WEEK?

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (5-1) AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (4-2)

Opta Win Probability: Chargers 55.1%
Spread: Chargers -1.5
The Story: Jim Harbaugh's personal demon

Here's a fun fact: Indianapolis is one of four teams Jim Harbaugh has never defeated as an NFL head coach. The Colts, Ravens, Chargers, and Vikings all have Harbaugh's number.

And here's another fun fact: The Colts have not defeated the Chargers on the road since Week 12, 2008, when Peyton Manning led them to a 23-20 win. That's 17 years of road futility against Los Angeles.

But the Colts are 5-1 this year and rolling. Daniel Jones is playing efficient football, Jonathan Taylor is dominating, and their defense is creating turnovers. This is a legitimate playoff team.

The Verdict: The supercomputer calls this basically even with a slight lean toward the Chargers because of home field. That feels right. Whoever wins this game will have earned it, and the loser will still have a strong case for playoff contention. This is must-watch football.

PACKERS AT CARDINALS: GREEN BAY'S DOMINANCE CONTINUES?

GREEN BAY PACKERS (3-1-1) AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (2-4)

Opta Win Probability: Packers 65.9%
Spread: Packers -6.5
The Story: Time of possession as an art form

The Packers have spent 74.0% of game time with a lead this season – the most of any NFL team. Since the beginning of last season, Green Bay has led 60.1% of the time, which also leads the league.

Think about what that means: Green Bay is winning, staying ahead, and controlling games from start to finish. That's not just good quarterback play (though Jordan Love deserves credit). That's elite coaching, strong defense, and an offense that doesn't beat itself.

Arizona, meanwhile, is 2-4 and trying to figure out if Kyler Murray is still elite or if the window has closed. Right now, it's looking like the latter.

The Verdict: Packers -6.5 feels about right. Green Bay should win comfortably, but Arizona at home can make things interesting. The supercomputer's 65.9% win probability suggests this won't be a blowout, but it also won't be particularly close.

NFC EAST RIVALRY: COMMANDERS AT COWBOYS

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3-3) AT DALLAS COWBOYS (2-3-1)

Opta Win Probability: Cowboys 50.8%
Spread: Commanders -2.5
The Story: Dak Prescott owns this matchup

Dak Prescott has thrown for four touchdowns in each of his past two games against Washington. He's done that against only one other opponent (two straight vs. the Giants, 2018-19). Prescott is one passing TD away from 28 against Washington, which would be third all-time against the franchise behind Charlie Conerly (38) and Eli Manning (33).

This is a rivalry game, which means records don't matter. Form doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is who wants it more on Sunday.

The Verdict: The supercomputer gives Dallas a razor-thin 50.8% edge, but Vegas has Washington as favorites. That spread discrepancy tells you everything – nobody knows who wins this game. If you're betting it, you're gambling, not analyzing.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: FALCONS AT 49ERS

ATLANTA FALCONS (3-2) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (4-2)

Opta Win Probability: 49ers 58.2%
Spread: 49ers -2.5
The Story: San Francisco's home fortress

The 49ers have a 29-12 record against the Falcons at home – their second-most wins and fifth-highest win percentage versus any team at home (minimum five games played).

San Francisco is getting healthier at the right time. Brock Purdy is back, Christian McCaffrey is doing Christian McCaffrey things, and their defense is rounding into form. This is the team everyone expected to see in September.

Atlanta, meanwhile, is 3-2 but hasn't beaten anyone impressive. Michael Penix Jr. is showing flashes, but is he ready for a primetime road game against one of the NFC's best defenses?

The Verdict: 49ers by a field goal or less. The supercomputer's 58.2% probability and the -2.5 spread both suggest a tight, competitive game that San Francisco pulls out in the fourth quarter. Classic Sunday night football.

MONDAY NIGHT DOUBLEHEADER: BECAUSE ONE GAME ISN'T ENOUGH

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (5-1) AT DETROIT LIONS (4-2)

Opta Win Probability: Lions 69.3%
Spread: Lions -5.5
The Story: Can Tampa's road magic continue?

Here's a weird stat: The Buccaneers have won their last three road games against Detroit and have held the Lions without a passing touchdown in all three games. That's the only active multi-game streak of this kind against the Lions in Detroit.

But Detroit is different this year. They're 4-2, their offense is humming, and their home crowd is electric. This isn't the same Lions team Tampa has beaten in the past.

The Verdict: The Lions should win this game, and that 69.3% probability feels about right. Tampa is good, but Detroit at home is better. Expect a shootout with Detroit pulling away late.

HOUSTON TEXANS (2-3) AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (4-2)

Opta Win Probability: Seahawks 60.8%
Spread: Seahawks -3.0
The Story: Jaxon Smith-Njigba is having a SEASON

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 696 receiving yards – the most by any Seattle player through their first six games of a season. That total currently leads the NFL, and he could join Steve Largent as the only Seahawks to lead the league in receiving yards for a full season.

Sam Darnold is feeding JSN consistently, and the Seahawks offense is clicking in ways nobody anticipated. Houston, meanwhile, is 2-3 and struggling to find consistency on offense.

The Verdict: Seahawks -3.0 at home feels light. The supercomputer gives Seattle a 60.8% win probability, which in a Monday night game suggests this could get out of hand. Seattle by 10+.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Week 7 is shaping up to be one of the most competitive weeks of the season. We've got legitimate playoff contenders facing off (Eagles-Vikings, Colts-Chargers), we've got division rivalry games (Cowboys-Commanders), and we've got tanking teams trying to out-tank each other (Dolphins-Browns).

The supercomputer has spoken, and its message is clear: this is the week where the contenders separate from the pretenders. By the time Monday night ends, we'll have a much clearer picture of who's real and who's just treading water.

So whether you're betting, fantasy managing, or just watching for the love of the game, Week 7 promises to deliver. And if the supercomputer is right (and it usually is), we're in for one hell of a ride.

We thank Stats Perform for providing the data

Photo:nflspinzone.com

More information:24live.com