NFL Week 6 Predictions: Opta Supercomputer Projects Winners and Playoff Shifts

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October 11, 2025

Week 6 of the NFL season brings significant matchups that could reshape playoff pictures in both conferences. The Opta supercomputer has crunched the numbers to provide data-backed win probabilities for every game, revealing which teams are positioned to capitalize and which face uphill battles.

Playoff Picture Shifts

Before diving into individual game predictions, let's examine the major movements in playoff projections:

AFC Changes: The Pittsburgh Steelers have leapfrogged the fading Baltimore Ravens to claim the best odds of winning the AFC North. The injury-ravaged Ravens (1-4) have plummeted to 10th in playoff probability, a stunning fall for a team many considered a Super Bowl contender.

Current AFC playoff leaders by probability:

1. Buffalo Bills
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Pittsburgh Steelers

NFC Landscape: The Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers lead NFC playoff probability, followed by the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The NFC appears more balanced than the AFC, where several contenders have separated from the pack.

Note: All win probabilities are as of Wednesday and represent straight-up win chances, not picks against the spread. They fluctuate throughout the week based on injury reports and other developments.

Thursday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles (68.3%) at New York Giants (31.7%)

The Eagles (4-1) bring dominant recent history into MetLife Stadium, having won 19 of their last 23 games against the Giants (1-4) dating back to 2014, including playoffs. Philadelphia's 19-4 record against New York ties for the third-best record by any team against a divisional opponent over this span.

The Giants' struggles continue, and facing a Philadelphia team rolling on both sides of the ball presents a daunting challenge. Expect the Eagles to control line of scrimmage and exploit New York's defensive vulnerabilities.

Betting Angle: Eagles -7.5 feels light given their dominance in this matchup. Consider Philadelphia team total over.

Sunday Games

International Showcase

Denver Broncos (68.3%) vs. New York Jets (31.7%) in London

The Broncos (3-2) make their Tottenham Hotspur Stadium debut against a Jets team (0-5) that's 0-2 all-time at the venue. Both teams are .500 lifetime in international games (Jets 2-2, Broncos 1-1), but Denver's momentum versus New York's winless start tells the story.

The Jets' struggles have been comprehensive - offensive line issues, quarterback inconsistency, and defensive lapses. Denver's resurgence under their second-year quarterback makes them clear favorites despite the neutral venue.

Betting Angle: Broncos spread looks safe. Consider under given early London kickoff fatigue factor.

Key AFC Matchups

Los Angeles Rams (68.1%) at Baltimore Ravens (31.9%)

The Ravens are 5-1 against the Rams (3-2) since 2007, but this matchup comes with a massive caveat: star QB Lamar Jackson won't play. Baltimore's already slim playoff hopes take another hit without their two-time MVP.

Los Angeles, fresh off a heartbreaking 26-23 overtime loss to San Francisco, ranks among NFL leaders in offensive and defensive EVE (Opta's efficiency vs. expected model). Against a Jackson-less Ravens team, they should dominate.

The Rams have had starting QBs throw for 200+ yards in their last three matchups versus Baltimore - their longest such streak in this series. Expect that trend to continue.

Betting Angle: Rams spread offers value. Baltimore's backup QB situation creates uncertainty that betting markets may not fully account for.

Los Angeles Chargers (60.8%) at Miami Dolphins (39.2%)

The Dolphins (1-4) are 6-3 against the Chargers (3-2) since 2013, including a 2023 Week 1 victory where they forced Los Angeles to allow 466 net passing yards - the most the Chargers have allowed in a single game since at least 1950.

However, Miami's current struggles suggest history may not repeat. The Chargers' balanced attack should exploit Miami's defensive vulnerabilities.

Betting Angle: Chargers money line safer than spread given Miami's unpredictability.

Divisional Dominance

Pittsburgh Steelers (67.3%) vs. Cleveland Browns (32.7%)

The Steelers (3-1) have won 21 consecutive home games against the Browns (1-4) - the longest active home winning streak by any team versus any single opponent in the NFL. It's also the longest such streak by the Steelers versus any opponent in franchise history.

Cleveland's quarterback situation remains uncertain, and Pittsburgh's defense has been suffocating. This streak shows no signs of ending.

Betting Angle: Steelers -6.5 feels like free money given this historic dominance.

Dallas Cowboys (57.0%) at Carolina Panthers (43.0%)

The Cowboys (2-2-1) have won three straight against the Panthers (2-3), scoring at least 30 points in all three victories. Dallas hasn't scored 30+ in four straight games against a single opponent since a 2018-20 run versus the Giants.

Carolina's inconsistency makes them difficult to trust, even at home. Dallas should have enough firepower to continue the streak.

Betting Angle: Cowboys spread reasonable, but over might be the play given Dallas's scoring history.

Upset Potential

Jacksonville Jaguars (54.6%) vs. Seattle Seahawks (45.4%)

This is Seattle's first trip to Jacksonville (4-1) since Week 14 of 2017 (a 30-24 Jags win). Coming off their big Monday night victory over the Chiefs, Jacksonville has momentum and confidence.

The Jaguars have won three of five home games against the Seahawks (3-2), scoring at least 20 points in all five meetings. This one feels like a coin flip despite Jacksonville's slight edge in probabilities.

Betting Angle: Seahawks +3 offers value. This game screams "stay away from spread."

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (61.5%) vs. San Francisco 49ers (38.5%)

The 49ers (4-1) are 21-6 all-time against the Buccaneers (4-1) - the best record between any two current NFL teams (minimum 25 matchups). However, Tampa Bay's home-field advantage and current form suggest this historical dominance may not matter.

Baker Mayfield has been clutch all season, and the Bucs' offense can match San Francisco's firepower.

Betting Angle: 49ers money line at plus odds offers value given historical dominance.

Mismatch of the Week

Green Bay Packers (86.5%) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (13.5%)

The supercomputer gives Cincinnati just a 13.5% chance - one of the week's biggest mismatches. Each of the last two meetings went to overtime, with Green Bay winning by three points both times. The Packers are the only team in franchise history to win consecutive games against an opponent with both victories coming in OT.

Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco, just acquired from Cleveland, is reportedly set to start for Cincinnati. His lack of preparation time with his new team further hampers the Bengals' already slim chances.

Betting Angle: Packers -13.5 is steep, but the math supports it. Consider first-half spread as safer alternative.

Sunday Night Football

Detroit Lions (44.5%) at Kansas City Chiefs (55.5%)

The Chiefs (2-3) are 6-2 at home against the Lions (4-1), winning by an average margin of 16.3 points. Both of Detroit's road wins in Kansas City came by one point, including their last meeting in Week 1 of 2023.

This feels like Patrick Mahomes' statement game. After an uncharacteristic 2-3 start, expect Kansas City to assert dominance on prime time against a quality opponent.

Betting Angle: Chiefs -3 feels right. Lean toward over given both offenses' capabilities.

Monday Night Football

Buffalo Bills (57.3%) at Atlanta Falcons (42.7%)

The Bills (4-1) are 13-3 against NFC opponents since 2022, tied with the Ravens for the best mark in the NFL. Buffalo averages a league-high 32.0 points in those matchups.

The 2-2 Falcons present a test, but Buffalo's consistency against NFC competition suggests they'll handle business in prime time.

Betting Angle: Bills -4 reasonable, but beware Monday night unpredictability.

Washington Commanders (65.4%) vs. Chicago Bears (34.6%)

The Commanders (3-2) are 8-2 against the Bears (2-2) over the last 20 years - their best record against any NFC foe over that span. Seven of their 10 meetings since 2005 were decided by one possession or less, with Washington winning all seven.

Jayden Daniels' development for Washington gives them an edge, but Chicago's defense could keep this competitive.

Betting Angle: Commanders -6 feels high for a game with this historical closeness. Consider Bears +6.

Conclusion

Week 6 features several lopsided matchups (Packers-Bengals, Steelers-Browns) alongside competitive battles (Jaguars-Seahawks, Lions-Chiefs). The supercomputer's probabilities provide valuable context, but as always, any given Sunday can produce surprises.

For bettors, the key is identifying where the probabilities diverge from betting market odds. The Rams at Baltimore, Seahawks at Jacksonville, and 49ers at Tampa Bay present the most intriguing value opportunities based on historical trends versus current projections.

Thanks to Stats Perform for the data

Photo: apnews.com

More information:24live.com