NFL 2025: Where Have the Elite Rushing Teams Gone?

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October 10, 2025

Unlike 2024, there's no single NFL team dominating on the ground this season, no obvious pattern of excellence, and no sure way to predict which backs or offenses will thrive.

Traditional Powers Are Failing

If you asked someone to name the best rushing teams in the NFL, you'd probably hear the usual suspects: Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, or Baltimore Ravens. These teams built their offenses around the run with elite backs and strong offensive lines.

But that list would be wrong.

Actual leaders in run success rate:

• Dallas Cowboys
• Washington Commanders
• Los Angeles Rams
• Minnesota Vikings
• Pittsburgh Steelers

None of these teams are among traditional rushing powers, and their success in efficiency doesn't translate to dominance in total yards.

Traditional powers this year:

• Eagles: 15th in run success rate, 25th in rushing yards
• 49ers: 26th in run success rate, 17th in rushing yards
• Ravens: 31st in run success rate, 29th in rushing yards

What Changed From 2024?

In 2024, the situation was clear: the top five teams in run success rate all finished in the top 10 in rushing yards per game. Eight of the top 10 teams by success rate also finished in the top 10 for rushing yards.

League statistics 2024 vs 2025:

• Average run success rate: down only 0.2%
• Heavy boxes: less frequent by 0.8%
• Yards before first defender contact: virtually unchanged
• Tackling: slightly better (2.96 vs 3.14 yards after contact)

None of these changes explain the huge gaps we're seeing between success rate and yardage.

New Running Back Hierarchy

Jonathan Taylor leads the league in rushing yards but plays for the Indianapolis Colts, who rank only ninth in rushing yards per game and eighth in run success rate.

Top 3 running backs 2025:

1. Jonathan Taylor (Colts) - 94 carries, dominates against bad boxes
2. James Cook (Bills) - 90 carries, second in rushing yards/game
3. Javonte Williams (Cowboys) - 79 carries, third in rushing yards/game

All three average roughly 4 yards per carry despite facing bad boxes at least 50% of the time.

Former stars are lagging:

Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Christian McCaffrey - top running backs from recent seasons - are all falling short of expectations:

• Barkley: 3.67 ypc vs 4.76 projection
• McCaffrey: 3.56 ypc vs 4.54 projection
• Henry: slightly better than expected but limited by weak Ravens blocking

Age and career wear play a role. Henry (31), Barkley (28), and McCaffrey (29) each have between 1,900 and 2,500 career touches. Their yards after contact have fallen below league and career averages.

Run-Blocking Problem

Offensive lines and supporting casts are creating bad situations for the best running backs this year.

Run-blocking ELO rankings:

• Ravens: 18th
• Eagles: 20th

Tight end blocking collapse:

Tight ends account for roughly 21% of 1-on-1 blocks on running plays, and traditional powers are suffering:

• Baltimore: Mark Andrews is good, but other tight ends rank outside the top 38 in run disruption rate
• Philadelphia: Dallas Goedert, Grant Calcaterra, and Kylen Granson all rank near the bottom in 1-on-1 run-block success
• San Francisco: Without George Kittle, Luke Farrell and Jake Tonges rank 55th and 58th in disruption rate

Changing Nature of the Ground Game

Running backs as receivers:

Through Week 5 in 2024, running backs with at least 50 carries averaged 52 routes. This year that number jumped to 67 - teams are deploying backs more as pass catchers than ground dominators.

Overall decline in rushing attempts:

• 2024: 54.0 rushing attempts per game
• 2025: 52.5 rushing attempts per game

Rushing yards per game:

• 2024: 239.6 yards
• 2025: 229.5 yards

Quarterback Role

The top four rushing teams in the NFL this season all have quarterbacks who average at least 20 rushing yards per game. Top rushing teams are producing, but not necessarily from pure rushing situations.

Impact on traditional teams:

• Lamar Jackson is running less for the Ravens
• Jalen Hurts isn't as effective with his legs for the Eagles
• Both teams are struggling in the ground game

Playoff Implications

In 2024, seven of the top 10 teams in run success rate made the playoffs. This year, six of the top 10 through Week 5 have at least a 63% chance of reaching the postseason.

Betting Implications

Fade traditional rushing teams:

• Eagles, 49ers, and Ravens are no longer reliable for rushing props
• Over/under totals should account for decreased overall rushing production

Target new leaders:

• Cowboys, Commanders, and Colts offer better value in rushing props
• QB rushing props are gaining importance due to increased role

Running back props:

• Taylor, Cook, and Williams offer the most consistent value
• Barkley, Henry, and McCaffrey represent fade candidates despite their names

Team totals:

• Teams with mobile QBs (Bills, Cowboys, Commanders) offer better over value
• Traditional rushing teams may disappoint expectations

Conclusion

The NFL rushing game is no longer about dominance at the line of scrimmage. It's now about balance and versatility.

No team dominates every category, and the strategy for building a good rushing game varies by team. The combination of aging star backs, inconsistent blocking, and increased emphasis on quarterbacks and running backs as pass catchers has fundamentally changed the ground game landscape.

For fantasy managers and betting enthusiasts, this means reassessing assumptions. Traditional wisdom about "elite rushing teams" no longer applies. Success in 2025 requires a deeper dive into metrics like run success rate against heavy boxes, tight end blocking efficiency, and quarterback rushing contribution.

Games are no longer won purely on the ground. They're won through adaptability.

Thanks to Stats Perform for the data

Photo: Yahoo sports

More information:24live.com