Chiefs vs Jaguars: Monday Night Showdown Could Signal AFC Power Shift

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October 7, 2025

Monday Night Football brings a potentially pivotal AFC matchup as the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) host the Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) in a game that could signal a changing of the guard in the conference. After stunning the previously unbeaten San Francisco 49ers on the road, the Jaguars have an opportunity to announce their arrival among the AFC elite by defeating the three-time Super Bowl champions on national television.

Two Franchises at a Crossroads

Over the past eight seasons, these franchises have occupied opposite ends of the NFL spectrum. Kansas City has appeared in every AFC Championship Game during that span, capturing three Super Bowl titles. Jacksonville has endured five seasons with double-digit losses and managed just one playoff victory.

Yet the Opta supercomputer suggests the balance of power may be shifting. As of Sunday, the projection gives Jacksonville an 11.4-win season with 91.6% playoff probability - second among AFC teams only to Buffalo Bills (12.5 wins, 98.8% playoff odds). Kansas City, meanwhile, is navigating unfamiliar struggles at 2-2.

The supercomputer has long believed in Jacksonville, calculating their preseason win total at 10.5 with 75.1% playoff odds. Their 26-21 road victory over San Francisco validated that faith, but defeating Kansas City on Monday night would send an unmistakable message to the entire league.

Jacksonville's Path to Victory

Opportunistic Defense Creating Opportunities

The Jaguars sit tied atop the AFC South with Indianapolis thanks to a defense that has forced at least three turnovers in each game, leading the NFL with 13 takeaways - four more than they managed in all of 2024.

This turnover production has been crucial given offensive inconsistencies. Jacksonville has scored touchdowns on five of 13 possessions following turnovers (38.5%), compared to just four touchdowns on 33 other possessions (12.1%). The NFL average touchdown rate is 23.0%.

Ground Game Dominance

While the passing attack remains a work in progress under first-year coach Liam Coen, the rushing attack behind Travis Etienne has become the offense's foundation. Jacksonville ranks fourth in rushing yards (144.0 per game) - a 42.3-yard improvement from 2024 - doing most damage up the middle.

The Jaguars run 46 inside zone plays, fifth-most in the NFL. When executing from 122 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR), they're nearly unstoppable, gaining a league-leading 7.4 yards per play.

Etienne has run 26 times on inside zone concepts, averaging 6.50 yards - the highest among backs with minimum 15 such carries. His other rushing plays average 5.77 yards. From 122 personnel specifically, Etienne averages 9.04 yards on 23 carries - far superior to the 31 other running backs with at least 12 such attempts.

Etienne's 3.13 yards after contact leads all NFL running backs with 35+ carries, demonstrating his ability to break tackles and create extra yardage.

Exploiting Kansas City's Weakness

This presents problems for Kansas City's struggling run defense. When opponents use 122 personnel, the Chiefs allow successful plays 51.2% of the time (second-highest in NFL) and permit 5.6 yards per rush versus the league average of 4.1.

Baltimore's Derrick Henry averaged 5.43 yards on seven carries from 122 personnel last week, while Justice Hill scored an untouched 71-yard touchdown from the same formation. Overall, Kansas City surrendered 9.76 yards per rush to Baltimore - the highest by any Chiefs opponent since Philadelphia averaged 9.78 in Week 3 of 2013.

Jacksonville possesses the personnel and game plan to replicate that success.

Passing Game Concerns

Trevor Lawrence has career lows in completion percentage (58.3%, 31st in NFL) and yards per attempt (5.9, 28th), though drops share blame. Jacksonville leads the league with 12 dropped passes - three more than any other team. Brian Thomas has an NFL-worst four drops, with Dyami Brown adding three more.

Kansas City's Path to Victory

Offensive Awakening

After scoring just 21, 17, and 22 points in the first three weeks, Kansas City exploded for 37 points against Baltimore - their highest total since a 41-10 demolition of Chicago in Week 3 of 2023.

The Chiefs scored on seven of eight possessions (the lone failure being a missed field goal), with Patrick Mahomes throwing four touchdowns without an interception for a 124.8 passer rating after managing just three TDs with one pick and an 83.4 rating through three games.

The Xavier Worthy Effect

The catalyst was Xavier Worthy's return from a shoulder injury. Playing for the first time since colliding with Travis Kelce in the season opener, Worthy accounted for all three Kansas City explosive plays of 20+ yards.

The second-year speedster finished with career-high 121 yards on just seven touches - a 28-yard reception, 37-yard catch, and 35-yard end-around. His impact extended beyond statistics.

With Worthy on the field, Mahomes threw for 219 yards and all four touchdowns. More tellingly, Mahomes wasn't hit once on 27 throws with Worthy playing, compared to three hits on 11 passes when Worthy sat.

Kansas City ran successful plays 47.4% from 113 personnel with Worthy on field versus 25.0% on all other plays. His speed forces defenses to adjust, creating opportunities for teammates like Hollywood Brown (3 catches, 38 yards), Travis Kelce (3-26), JuJu Smith-Schuster (3-24), and Brashard Smith (2-23).

As Mahomes explained: "He's just so explosive. You get the football in his hands and the defense has to adjust, and when they adjust and he gets so much attention on him, other guys can make things happen."

The Prediction

The Opta supercomputer gives Kansas City a 57.9% win probability (as of Sunday), and most betting sites favor the Chiefs. Historical trends support this - Kansas City has won eight straight in the series since a 2009 loss, including a 27-20 divisional playoff victory in 2022. Only Dallas's nine-game streak over the Giants represents a longer active winning streak by one team over another.

Jacksonville's Monday Night Football record adds another layer of concern. Since 2000, the Jaguars have the NFL's lowest Monday winning percentage at .250 (3-9 record). During their current three-game MNF losing streak, they've surrendered 38, 34, and 47 points.

Betting Perspective

Kansas City's slight favoritism (57.9%) reflects their championship pedigree and historical dominance, but Jacksonville's improved roster and home-field advantage make this competitive.

The Jaguars' rushing attack versus Kansas City's vulnerable run defense represents the game's key matchup. If Jacksonville establishes Etienne early, they control tempo and keep Mahomes off the field - their best path to victory.

Kansas City's offense with Worthy healthy presents significant challenges for Jacksonville's secondary. The Chiefs' ability to create explosive plays through Worthy while distributing targets creates difficult defensive decisions.

Betting Considerations:

• Over/under will be key given Kansas City's offensive awakening and Jacksonville's defensive takeaways
• Etienne props offer value given the matchup against KC's run defense
• Worthy's presence makes Chiefs receiving props intriguing
• Jacksonville's MNF struggles versus their current form creates interesting dynamics

Conclusion

This game carries implications beyond Week 5 standings. For Jacksonville, victory would validate their transformation from rebuilding project to legitimate contender. For Kansas City, winning extends their dominance over Jacksonville while proving their offensive struggles were temporary.

The Jaguars' ground game against the Chiefs' vulnerable run defense provides Jacksonville's clearest path to victory. If Etienne dominates and the defense creates turnovers, they can control the game's flow.

Kansas City counters with Mahomes, Worthy, and championship experience. Their ability to generate explosive plays and convert in crucial moments remains elite.

Jacksonville has made believers after defeating San Francisco, but conquering Kansas City on Monday night would announce their arrival among the AFC's upper class. The stage is set for a defining moment in both franchises' 2025 seasons.

Thanks to Stats Perform for the data

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More information:24live.com