Chelsea vs Liverpool: Can Either Team Break Their Mini-Slump?

← Back

 

October 5, 2025

Saturday's Premier League clash at Stamford Bridge between Chelsea and Liverpool carries extra significance as both clubs desperately need a positive result to arrest their recent decline. With both teams suffering back-to-back defeats and facing significant injury concerns, this classic rivalry could prove pivotal in determining their season trajectories.

Chelsea's Disciplinary Crisis

Enzo Maresca's Blues have endured consecutive Premier League defeats for just the third time under their current manager, losing to Manchester United and Brighton. While they bounced back with a midweek Champions League victory over Benfica, their disciplinary issues continue to plague them.

João Pedro was dismissed for a second yellow card in stoppage time against Benfica, marking the third consecutive match in which Chelsea had a player sent off. The statistics are damning: since the start of last season, Chelsea have received more cards (114 yellow, 4 red) than any other Premier League side.

Among managers with 20+ games at one club, only Mauricio Pochettino at Chelsea (2.9 per game) has a higher card-per-game ratio than Maresca's current 2.7. This lack of discipline is becoming a defining characteristic of his tenure.

Injury Crisis Hits Both Camps

Chelsea's injury list is extensive and troubling. Trevoh Chalobah's red card against Brighton means he joins an already depleted squad. While Wesley Fofana and Andrey Santos may return, the Blues will be without Tosin Adarabioyo, Levi Colwill, Liam Delap, and most critically, Cole Palmer - their most creative force.

Liverpool face their own selection headaches. Alisson Becker suffered an injury against Galatasaray in midweek, with Arne Slot essentially ruling him out: "Normally he will not be able to play on Saturday. That's 99.9 per cent – I've already said 100 per cent, but let's make it 99.9 [although] I think it's 100."

Hugo Ekitiké and Federico Chiesa are also doubts, while young centre-back Giovanni Leoni is unlikely to feature again this season. Being without two striker options could prove particularly problematic given Alexander Isak is still working toward full fitness.

The Isak Factor

Isak presents an intriguing subplot. The Swedish striker has scored in each of his last two Premier League appearances at Stamford Bridge, though both came in Newcastle defeats. Having been only a substitute in midweek, he should be fresh enough to start - and Liverpool fans will hope his scoring record at the Bridge doesn't translate to another defeat.

Without arguably the world's best goalkeeper and their most in-form forward, Liverpool's challenge of improving their rocky week becomes significantly harder.

Liverpool's Late-Goal Trend

Liverpool's 1-0 loss in Istanbul followed a 2-1 defeat to Crystal Palace, where they conceded a late winner for a change. This represents an interesting reversal of fortune for a team that has profited from late goals themselves this season.

Three of Liverpool's first six Premier League games featured 90th-minute winning goals, with the Reds benefiting against Newcastle and Burnley. They're the first side ever to score three 90th-minute winners across their first six Premier League games of a season.

Now Liverpool are looking to avoid losing consecutive Premier League matches for the first time since April 2023. They've also lost their last three in London - their worst losing streak in the capital since October 2009 to November 2010, when they suffered four defeats.

Chelsea's Own Demons

The Blues have their own negative history to overcome. They've lost four of their last five home Premier League matches against reigning champions. More concerningly, Chelsea have lost three Premier League matches when scoring first in 2025 - their most in a single year since 2018. Even if they take the lead, it guarantees nothing.

After their 3-1 victory in May, Chelsea could enjoy back-to-back league wins over Liverpool for the first time since November 2014, when they completed three victories in a row. However, they'll need to remain vigilant until the final whistle.

Head-to-Head Context

Liverpool are winless in their last four Premier League games at Stamford Bridge and could lose away to Chelsea in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2004-07. However, context matters - their May defeat came after they'd already secured the title with nothing at stake, while Chelsea battled for Champions League qualification.

Slot's men didn't win any of their four games after clinching the title (D2 L2), suggesting standards understandably dropped. Prior to that loss, Liverpool were unbeaten in 10 meetings with Chelsea across all competitions and had lost just one of the preceding 13 Premier League encounters.

The Opta Prediction

Only the Everton vs Crystal Palace match is rated as likelier to be closer than this fixture. Liverpool are favorites, winning in 42.3% of the Opta supercomputer's 10,000 simulations. However, Chelsea have almost a one-in-three chance (32.3%) of taking three points, with the remaining 25.4% probability assigned to a draw.

All three outcomes are genuinely on the table at Stamford Bridge.

Betting Perspective

From a betting standpoint, this match screams unpredictability. Both teams are dealing with injuries to key players, recent poor form, and psychological vulnerabilities. Liverpool's slight favoritism (42.3%) reflects their superior squad depth and recent dominance in the head-to-head, but Chelsea's home advantage and desperation for points make them dangerous.

The draw at 25.4% probability offers value, especially given both teams' fragility. Both teams to score looks almost certain given the defensive issues plaguing both sides. For the more adventurous, backing late goals (after 75 minutes) could pay dividends given Liverpool's history this season and Chelsea's tendency to concede when leading.

Conclusion

This match represents a critical juncture for both clubs. Chelsea need to prove their early-season promise wasn't a mirage, while Liverpool must demonstrate they can handle adversity without their talismanic goalkeeper. With both teams nursing wounds - physical and psychological - expect a tense, tactical battle that could swing either way.

The absence of Palmer for Chelsea and Alisson for Liverpool levels the playing field considerably. In a season where both clubs harbor title ambitions, dropping points here could prove costly. Expect drama, controversy (given Chelsea's disciplinary record), and potentially more late goals to define this classic rivalry clash.

Thanks to Stats Perform for the data

Photo: dailystar.ie

More information:24live.com