Arsenal vs West Ham: Can Hammers Repeat Their Emirates Heroics?

← Back

 



October 4, 2025

Arsenal host West Ham United on Saturday with revenge firmly on their minds after suffering back-to-back home defeats to their London rivals. The Gunners are overwhelming favorites according to the Opta supercomputer, but the Hammers have recent history at the Emirates Stadium that suggests this won't be straightforward.

Arsenal's Set-Piece Supremacy

The Gunners' prowess from dead-ball situations has become their defining characteristic under Mikel Arteta. Nine of their last 14 Premier League goals have come via set-pieces (seven corners, one free-kick, one penalty), with corners accounting for 16.7% of all league goals scored during Arteta's tenure (64 of 408).

In Premier League history, among managers whose teams have scored 300+ goals, only Tony Pulis (21.9%) and Sean Dyche (18.6%) have overseen a higher percentage from corners. Gabriel Magalhães embodies this threat - his dramatic late winner at Newcastle was his 18th Premier League goal for Arsenal, the most by any defender in the competition since his September 2020 debut.

Remarkably, every single one of Gabriel's Premier League goals has come from set-piece situations - a unique record in the competition's history. West Ham will need exceptional organization to defend Arsenal's corner routines, especially given they've conceded eight goals from corners in their first six Premier League games this season - matching their entire total from last campaign.

Saka's Milestone Moment

Should Bukayo Saka feature, he'll make his 200th Premier League appearance at age 24 years and 29 days, becoming the seventh-youngest player to reach this milestone and the youngest since Raheem Sterling in October 2018 (23 years, 325 days).

Thierry Henry remains the only Arsenal player to score in his 200th Premier League appearance for the club, netting twice against Crystal Palace in February 2005. Saka is also one goal or assist away from his 100th Premier League goal involvement - another significant landmark for the England international.

West Ham's Recent Emirates Success

West Ham could become just the second side in the Premier League era after Manchester City to win three consecutive away league matches against Arsenal at the Emirates. Their recent record is remarkable - the Hammers account for 50% of Arsenal's four home Premier League defeats in their last 42 matches at the Emirates (W29 D9).

The victories came via a 2-0 win in December 2023 and a 1-0 triumph in February 2025. Only once before have West Ham won three away games in a row against Arsenal, doing so between November 1991 and March 1995.

Arsenal's Strong Form

Despite those home setbacks, Arsenal are in excellent shape. Following last weekend's dramatic 2-1 victory at Newcastle, they secured a 2-0 Champions League win over Olympiakos on Wednesday. The Gunners have collected six wins from their last eight top-flight fixtures (D1 L1), with their only failures to win coming against Liverpool and Manchester City.

Since May 18, Arteta's side have accumulated more points (19) than any other Premier League team - demonstrating their consistency against all but the very elite.

Bowen's Arsenal Record

Jarrod Bowen presents West Ham's greatest threat. The England forward has been involved in 11 goals in his last 12 Premier League appearances (eight goals, three assists) and has five career goals against Arsenal across all competitions, including the winner at the Emirates last season.

Bowen's ability to find space and finish chances makes him dangerous, particularly if Arsenal's focus on attacking leaves gaps in transition.

Team News

Arsenal remain without Noni Madueke, Piero Hincapie, and Kai Havertz, though Arteta dismissed concerns about Gabriel after his substitution against Olympiakos. For West Ham, Tomas Soucek completes his three-match suspension, but Aaron Wan-Bissaka could return from an abdominal issue.

The absence of key players for both sides adds unpredictability to team selection and tactical approaches.

The Opta Prediction

The Opta supercomputer gives Arsenal a whopping 76.7% chance of victory despite those recent home defeats. West Ham's chances are rated at just 9.4%, with the draw a 13.9% possibility.

For the season overall, Arsenal have a 37.7% chance of winning the title - bettered only by Liverpool (41.9%). West Ham face a concerning outlook, with relegation (15.2% chance of finishing 19th) their most likely single outcome according to current projections.

Betting Perspective

Arsenal's overwhelming favoritism (76.7%) reflects their quality and home advantage, but West Ham's recent Emirates record creates interesting betting angles. The Hammers' 9.4% win probability seems generous given they've won the last two meetings at this venue.

Arsenal's set-piece dominance combined with West Ham's corner-defending woes suggests backing Arsenal to score from a corner offers value. Both Gabriel and Declan Rice present appealing anytime goalscorer options given Arsenal's corner threat.

For those seeking greater odds, West Ham double chance (win or draw at combined 23.3%) capitalizes on their recent success at the Emirates. The visitors have been strong away from home, losing just one of their last five road games (W3 D1).

Over 2.5 goals has appeal given Arsenal's attacking prowess and West Ham's counter-attacking threat through Bowen. However, Arsenal's defensive solidity at home (just four defeats in 42) suggests caution.

Conclusion

This London derby pits Arsenal's set-piece mastery against West Ham's recent Emirates success. While the Gunners are clear favorites, recent history suggests the Hammers won't capitulate easily.

Arsenal need to demonstrate they've learned from their previous home defeats to West Ham. Their corner routines will be crucial against opponents who've struggled defending them this season. West Ham, under new manager Nuno Espírito Santo, must show defensive organization while exploiting transitions through Bowen.

Saka's milestone appearance and Arsenal's title aspirations add extra motivation for the hosts. Yet West Ham have proven they can win at the Emirates, making this potentially tighter than the Opta predictions suggest.

Thanks to Stats Perform for the data

Photo: anditsarsenal.com

More information:24live.com

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

DE BRUYNE'S FAREWELL TO ETIHAD FACES CHERRIES' ROAD INVINCIBILITY

Image
  May 20, 2025   Manchester City - AFC Bournemouth   Etihad Stadium, Manchester On Tuesday, May 20, 2025, Manchester City will face AFC Bournemouth in the 37th round of the Premier League. The match offers a likely farewell of the home star Kevin De Bruyne to Etihad Stadium against a team with excellent away form. Manchester City have won all seven of their Premier League home games against Bournemouth – only Arsenal (10 vs Stoke) and Manchester United (8 vs Wigan) have a better 100% home win rate against an opponent in the competition. The Citizens thus represent an insurmountable obstacle for the Cherries at their own ground. Bournemouth won the reverse fixture against Man City 2-1 in November, having been winless in their first 20 league meetings with the Citizens beforehand (D2 L18). The South England side thus achieved a historic success this season. Manchester City have won their final home league game in 10 of the last 11 seasons (D1), including each of the la...
Read more

Marks Could Be the Next Irving: NFL Draft 2025 Late-Round Gems

Image
  Bucky Irving proved last year that the fourth round can hide future stars. His 1,122 rushing yards and eight touchdowns made him the most productive rookie runner in the NFL. Now the search continues - which of this year's late picks will repeat similar success? The pattern is clear. Irving followed the path of Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City's seventh-round gem from 2022. Both had one thing in common - they weren't college superstars with astronomical numbers, but they proved efficiency and ability to maximize opportunities. Among this year's candidates, Marks from USC stands out most, selected by Houston in the fourth round. His transformation is remarkable - four years at Mississippi State never exceeded 600 yards per season, but a single season at USC brought 1,133 yards with impressive 6.8 yards per carry. Marks has an ideal situation for immediate impact. Joe Mixon ahead of him has injury history and Houston under new coordinator Nick Caley is looking for fresh b...
Read more

MAYBANK CHAMPIONSHIP 2025: PRESTIGIOUS LPGA TOURNAMENT IN MALAYSIA WITH MILLION-DOLLAR REWARDS AND STAR-STUDDED FIELD

Image
  October 30 – November 2, 2025 | Kuala Lumpur Golf & Country Club, Malaysia World Number One Thitikul Seeks First Victory After Two Second-Place Finishes Asia once again hosts one of the richest golf tournaments when the prestigious Maybank Championship takes place from October 30 to November 2, 2025. The third edition of this spectacular LPGA tournament will welcome the world's best players to the picturesque Kuala Lumpur Golf & Country Club with an incredible prize pool of $3 million ! TOURNAMENT WITH A SHORT BUT RICH HISTORY The Maybank Championship has quickly grown into one of the most significant tournaments on the LPGA Tour thanks to its combination of lucrative rewards, prestigious location, and quality field: EMERGING TRADITION Founded in 2023 when the LPGA Tour returned to Malaysia after a six-year hiatus . This was a significant event for Asian golf that signaled the LPGA's commitment to expanding its presence in a region where women's golf is...
Read more