Analysis of 0-2 Teams: Who Still Has Playoff Chances?

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Historical perspective and current outlook for ten winless teams

A 0-2 start historically represents a near-fatal blow to NFL teams' playoff ambitions. Only 10% of 451 teams with such starts since 1966 have managed to reach the playoffs. In the modern era with 14 playoff teams, the statistic is only marginally better - just 12.2% of teams (5 of 41) since 2020.

Historical Context and Reality

Teams that overcome initial struggles rarely achieve significant success. The last team with playoff success after a 0-2 start was the Cincinnati Bengals in 2022, who reached the conference championship. Only three teams in history have managed to win the Super Bowl after a 0-2 start: the 1993 Dallas Cowboys, 2001 New England Patriots, and 2007 New York Giants.

This year's ten teams face similar challenges with playoff chances below 40% according to prediction models. The Houston Texans (13.5% chance to win AFC South) and Kansas City Chiefs (12.9% chance to win AFC West) hold relatively the best position due to divisional opportunities.

Teams with Real Comeback Chances

Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes is experiencing the worst start of his career, ranking 31st in completion percentage among 34 quarterbacks with at least 25 attempts. His open target rate, well-thrown rate, and catchable ball rate all rank in the bottom ten. For the first time in his career, he started a season 0-2.

Problems extend beyond the quarterback. Receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster, Hollywood Brown, and Tyquan Thornton average less than 2.5 burn yards per target, while Travis Kelce has the fourth-worst catch rating among tight ends with at least 20 routes.

The running game also fails with 24th place in run success rate and just 3.2 yards per attempt (26th place). However, the defense provides hope - the Chiefs have lost by only nine total points and hold 15th place in defensive success rate.

Teams with Diminishing Time

Chicago Bears The Bears are the only team in the bottom 10 in both offensive and defensive success rate. Caleb Williams under new coach Ben Johnson hasn't made the expected leap with the eighth-worst completion rate and second-worst well-thrown rate.

The running game is catastrophic despite healthy 3.7 yards before contact (4th place). The 27.3% success rate is second-worst in the league. The only bright spot is red zone efficiency at 4/4 (66.7% success rate).

Houston Texans The Texans are close to victories, but third downs are killing them with the worst offensive success rate (22.2%) and conversion rate in the league. Defensive success rate on third downs is 26th-worst.

The problem lies in quarterback protection - Stroud is under pressure nearly half the time. The secondary defense collapses with a 52.2% passing success rate on third downs.

Miami Dolphins The Dolphins have a clear problem - defense. They've allowed the second-highest point total in the league with the worst defensive success rate. The secondary has nearly a 60% burn rate and 54.8% passing success rate - both numbers worst in the NFL.

Tua Tagovailoa combines a top-5 completion rate with a bottom-3 pickable pass rate. De'Von Achane provides an offensive bright spot with the eighth-highest yards before contact (3.44) and 9.0 burn yards per target.

Teams Without Realistic Hope

The New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, and New York Giants show structural problems requiring more than one season to fix.

The Browns and Saints have solid defenses (2nd and 3rd in defensive success rate) but offensive problems (17th and 24th place). The New York teams suffer the opposite problem with inconsistent defense despite occasional offensive flashes.

The Panthers and Titans are simply bad on both sides of the ball with quarterbacks Bryce Young and Cam Ward ranking at the bottom of most advanced metrics.

History suggests one of these ten teams will achieve playoff success. The question is whether it will be a Mahomes miracle, the finally-learning Texans, or an unexpected revival from another team.

Thanks to Stats Perform for the data

Photo:David Eulitt/Getty Images

More information:24live.com


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