Stars of Tomorrow: Which NFL Players Appear Poised for a Breakout 2025 Season?

The NFL season is almost upon us. Here are some players whose 2024 data suggests they could be primed for a breakout.

Contrary to popular belief, breakout players don't emerge from thin air. While stars will always shine, identifying and developing players who can transform from role contributors into cornerstone pieces is equally crucial for building championship rosters in the NFL.

Several key indicators help identify potential stars-in-the-making, centered around three essential elements: production, efficiency, and situation.

Even players with limited action need tangible metrics to catch evaluators' attention. Previous breakout stars like receiver Deebo Samuel, running back Tony Pollard, and defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike all showed promising statistical indicators before becoming household names the following season.

Situation serves as another reliable predictor, indicating players have a clear pathway to expanded opportunities. Third-string talents rarely remain buried on depth charts when they consistently outperform their current roles. We've focused on players positioned for increased production due to depth chart changes, coaching transitions, or both.

With these criteria in mind, we've identified six established NFL players (excluding rookies) primed for breakout campaigns in 2025.

WR Calvin Austin III, Pittsburgh Steelers

For wide receivers, we examined players 26 or younger who drew 50-75 targets in 2024 while running at least 250 routes. Using benchmark metrics from previous breakout performers like Deebo Samuel and Michael Pittman (2021) and Nico Collins (2023), we sought receivers who demonstrated efficiency with at least 35 burns, a 72% open rate, and a 0.86 catch rating.

Austin emerged as the most compelling candidate, largely benefiting from the George Pickens trade. He now serves as Aaron Rodgers' primary deep threat, filling a role distinct from teammates who excel in intermediate zones. Austin's speed creates explosive downfield opportunities the offense previously lacked.

His 2024 production was solid: 36 receptions for 548 yards and four touchdowns. More impressively, Austin ranked 16th with 11.99 burn yards per target among 75 receivers with at least 200 routes and 60 targets. The combination of an expanded role and his skill set strongly suggests breakout potential.

RB Jordan Mason, Minnesota Vikings

Projecting running back breakouts proves challenging given the scarcity of non-rookie starters. However, Mason stands out due to his 2024 performance and new opportunity with Minnesota.

The 26-year-old flashed brilliance filling in for Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco, rushing 153 times for 789 yards and three touchdowns while adding 11 catches for 91 yards.

Mason's efficiency metrics were particularly impressive. His 5.15 yards per carry ranked sixth among all running backs, while his 3.67 yards per carry against disrupted runs placed eighth among backs with 100+ carries. These numbers surpassed historical benchmarks from breakout performers like Austin Ekeler (2020) and Tony Pollard and Rhamondre Stevenson (2021), as well as 2024 averages for top-25 rushers with 200+ carries.

These weren't aberrant results either. Mason posted similar efficiency in 2023 on just 40 carries (5.16 YPC, 3.18 yards before contact, 2.10 after contact), even improving his disrupted-run performance from 1.92 to 3.67 yards per carry.

Now in Minnesota, Mason has prime opportunity to claim the lead role ahead of 30-year-old Aaron Jones. While the Vikings ranked 26th in run success rate (34.5%) in 2024, they attempted 457 rushes—matching San Francisco's volume.

TE Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars

Strange enters 2025 with multiple advantages: a new offensive system under head coach Liam Coen and promotion to Jacksonville's primary tight end following Evan Engram's release.

Beyond opportunity, Strange's production metrics align closely with recent tight end breakouts including Trey McBride and Jake Ferguson (2022) and Juwan Johnson (2021). Those three averaged 56.4% burn rate, 82.3% open rate, and 0.919 catch rating, plus 9.19 burn yards per target and 1.70 per route.

Strange exceeded those benchmarks across the board: 62.2% burn rate, 84.9% open rate, 0.941 catch rating, 9.69 burn yards per target, and 2.13 per route.

His raw production validates these advanced metrics. Stepping up during Engram's injury absences, Strange compiled 40 receptions for 411 yards and two touchdowns in 2024.

Coen's offensive philosophy also favors tight end production. Cade Otton achieved career-highs with 59 catches for 600 yards and four touchdowns in Tampa Bay (2024), while Tyler Higbee recorded 72 receptions for 620 yards and three scores in Los Angeles when Coen coordinated the Rams offense (2022).

DE Moro Ojomo, Philadelphia Eagles

Ojomo should inherit significant responsibility following Milton Williams' departure. Williams posted 5.0 sacks in 2024 with a 20.8% pressure rate, 18.9% run disruption rate, and 5.2% adjusted sack rate—production Ojomo seems capable of matching or exceeding.

His advanced metrics in limited action support breakout projections. Ojomo's numbers compare favorably to recent defensive line breakouts from Nnamdi Madubuike (2022), Zach Allen (2023), and Osa Odighizuwa (2023), while also measuring well against 2024 defensive tackles with 250+ snaps.

Philadelphia's defense has consistently developed elite defensive linemen, with Williams being the latest beneficiary before signing a lucrative New England contract this offseason. The 23-year-old Ojomo appears positioned to continue this trend.

DE Arnold Ebiketie, Atlanta Falcons

Despite never recording more than 6.0 sacks across three seasons, Ebiketie's advanced metrics suggest significant potential for 2025 improvement.

His 2024 performance either matched or approached recent breakout players from the past five seasons, including Keion White, Josh Sweat, Nik Bonitto, Bryce Huff, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Trey Hendrickson. That group averaged 19.2% pressure rate, 4.4% adjusted sack rate, and 7.7% run disruption rate, while Ebiketie posted 23.3% pressure rate, 4.0% adjusted sack rate, and 11.1% run disruption rate.

Atlanta's crowded edge rusher room represents the primary obstacle to Ebiketie's breakthrough. The Falcons drafted Jalon Walker and James Pearce in the first round while signing Leonard Floyd this offseason.

However, Ebiketie's consistent production over recent seasons positions him well to emerge from this competitive group in Raheem Morris' defensive scheme.

DB Israel Mukuamu, Dallas Cowboys

This represents our most speculative projection given Mukuamu's uncertain role in Matt Eberflus' Dallas defense. Originally a cornerback who transitioned to safety, Mukuamu could now claim the nickel corner position.

Dallas has experienced significant secondary turnover and injuries recently. The Cowboys lost Jourdan Lewis to free agency while Trevon Diggs, Josh Butler, and Caelen Carson are currently injured. Third-round pick Shavon Revel is recovering from a college ACL injury.

Mukuamu's metrics provide encouragement. His 30.8% burn rate allowed ranked third among 145 defensive backs with 100+ pass coverage snaps in 2024, while his 61.5% open rate placed 33rd in the same group. Though his 11.64 burn yards allowed per target raises concerns, he yielded just 1.49 burn yards per snap.

At 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds, Mukuamu possesses ideal size for defensive back versatility. Given consistent opportunity, he could build upon his solid 2024 campaign featuring two interceptions, two pass breakups, and 19 combined tackles despite limited snaps.

As the 2025 season approaches, these six players represent intriguing candidates for significant statistical jumps based on their underlying metrics, opportunity factors, and organizational contexts.

Thanks to Stats Perform for data and photos.

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