Leeds vs Newcastle: Prediction for depleted teams meeting at Elland Road

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31 August 2025, Elland Road

Newcastle United arrive in Leeds as favorites according to the Opta supercomputer with a 44.7% chance of victory. Both teams face significant personnel problems ahead of Saturday's encounter.

Newcastle seeking stability

Eddie Howe's team started the season with a 0-0 draw against Aston Villa and a dramatic 3-2 defeat at Liverpool. The Magpies have lost three of their last four league matches, which is more than in the previous 11 fixtures combined.

The positive is a series of eight consecutive wins against promoted teams, scoring at least three goals in seven of them. Harvey Barnes will want to continue his impressive record against Leeds - he has scored five goals in six league matches against this opponent.

Leeds after a difficult week

Daniel Farke's team began with a 1-0 win over Everton but followed with a 0-5 thrashing by Arsenal and penalty elimination by Sheffield Wednesday's reserves in the League Cup.

Nevertheless, Leeds remain unbeaten in 21 home league matches (18 wins, 3 draws), their best run under Farke. In the Premier League, they haven't won two consecutive home games since August 2022.

Anton Stach has impressed since his summer arrival - he has created seven chances in the league, the most of any player, and has been involved in 11 of Leeds' 24 shots.

Personnel problems

Newcastle will miss Anthony Gordon due to suspension for his red card, a significant loss for the player with the most shots in the league (10). Sandro Tonali and Joelinton are also major doubts after injuries from the Liverpool match. Fabian Schär will miss the game due to concussion protocols.

Leeds face midfield problems with both Ethan Ampadu and Ao Tanaka unavailable. Sean Longstaff will likely start against his former club.

Historical record

Leeds have lost only one of their last six league encounters with Newcastle. However, the Magpies historically perform well at Elland Road with 50% success rate (7 wins from 14 matches), their best away record against teams they've faced at least 10 times.

The Opta supercomputer gives Newcastle a 44.7% chance of victory, a draw 25.8%, and Leeds victory only 29.5%.

Thanks to Stats Perform for the data

Photo:Sportsmole

More information:24live.com

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