Chelsea vs Fulham: Match Prediction - Can Blues Avenge Last Season's Derby Defeat?

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31 August 2025, Stamford Bridge

The west London derby between Chelsea and Fulham represents a rivalry based more on geography than balanced results. The Opta supercomputer gives the home side a 59.4% chance of victory in Saturday's encounter.

Chelsea's historical dominance

The Premier League record speaks clearly - 22 wins for Chelsea against three for Fulham. Of teams that have played the Cottagers more than six times, only Manchester United (2.30) and Arsenal (2.22) have a better points-per-match average than Chelsea (2.14).

However, Fulham can draw confidence from last season's rare 2-1 triumph at Stamford Bridge, which ended a 21-game winless streak against Chelsea in all competitions. They have never won consecutive matches at Stamford Bridge, though.

Current team form

Chelsea started the season similarly to last year - failing to score in a home match (1-1 with Crystal Palace) but then netting five goals away (5-0 West Ham). João Pedro shines with four goals in four starts and could join a select group of strikers with five goals in their first five Chelsea starts.

Fulham have yet to achieve their first league victory with two 1-1 draws (Brighton, Manchester United). The positive is they are the only team in the league without reported injuries, while Chelsea miss six players including key man Cole Palmer.

Key factors

Marco Silva must decide on his striker - Raúl Jiménez could become the first Mexican with 200 Premier League appearances, while Rodrigo Muniz scored the winning goal in last season's derby and has excellent form with six goals in his last 10 away matches.

Fulham excel at using substitutes - they have scored 19 league goals from substitutes since last season, the most in the league. Rodrigo Muniz (7) and Harry Wilson (5) lead in substitute goals.

Visitors' defensive problems

Fulham's defense hasn't kept a clean sheet in their last 11 league matches since mid-March, which could offer Chelsea enough opportunities for their first home goal of the season.

The Opta supercomputer gives a draw 21.2% chance and a Fulham victory 19.4%. Despite Chelsea's historical dominance, they must take Fulham seriously after last season's surprise.

Thanks to Stats Perform for the data

Photo:chelseafc.com

More information:24live.com

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