Arsenal vs Leeds: Match Prediction - Can Gunners Extend Exceptional Record Against Promoted Sides?

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24 August 2025, Emirates Stadium

Mikel Arteta hopes for a second Premier League victory in Saturday's clash against Leeds United. The Opta supercomputer gives Arsenal a dominant 70.4% chance of victory.

Arsenal close to historic record

The Gunners are unbeaten in their last 42 Premier League home games against promoted sides (37 wins, 5 draws). Their last such defeat came in November 2010 against Newcastle United.

If Arsenal manage to avoid a surprise defeat, they will equal the competition record for the longest run without losing at home against promoted teams - 43 matches, held by Chelsea between 2001-2015.

Arteta dominates against Leeds

The Arsenal manager has faced Leeds more often without losing than any other team as Gunners boss in all competitions (8 games, 7 wins, 1 draw), winning all five encounters at the Emirates Stadium.

Arsenal enter their first home game of the 2025-26 season after a narrow 1-0 win at Old Trafford against Manchester United thanks to Riccardo Calafiori's header. It was Arsenal's 31st goal from a corner since the start of the 2023-24 season, 11 more than any other team.

Gyökeres seeking first goal

Viktor Gyökeres disappointed on debut against United, failing to attempt a single shot - the first time since the start of the 2023-24 season this happened to him in a league match. He is expected to lead the line for the first time in league action at the Emirates after Kai Havertz suffered a concerning knee injury.

The Swedish striker could benefit from the visit of last season's Championship winners. He was directly involved in 14 goals in 12 appearances against promoted sides in the Portuguese Primeira Liga.

Leeds seeking historic start

Leeds will try to win their opening two Premier League games for the first time since 2002-03 under Terry Venables. The Whites secured a 1-0 victory against Everton thanks to Lukas Nmecha's late penalty.

Nmecha became only the second player to score a penalty on his Leeds debut, along with Percy Whipp in 1922. He wants to join Alan Smith, Patrick Bamford and Mateusz Klich as the only players to score in their first two Premier League appearances for the club.

Team news

New striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin wasn't ready to face his former club Everton but could make his debut at the Emirates. Jaka Bijol will return from a suspension carried over from his Serie A campaign with Udinese, while Ethan Ampadu will be out until at least the first international break after an ankle injury.

Thanks to Stats Perform for the data

Photo: leedsunited.new

More information:24live.com

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