Day of Shocks at Club World Cup: Manchester City and Inter Stunned by Underdogs

Monday brought two historic shocks to the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup that rocked the football world. Manchester City and Internazionale, two of Europe's biggest clubs, were eliminated by underdogs in the Round of 16.

Monday 2025 will go down in Club World Cup history as the day the giants fell. In the American heat, two European powerhouses Manchester City and Internazionale experienced the bitter taste of elimination from teams nobody considered realistic contenders.

Favorites Fall: When Numbers Lie

Manchester City and Internazionale entered the knockout phase of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup as group winners. City were even the only team with a perfect record – 100% success rate in the group stage.

Pre-Tournament Predictions

The Opta supercomputer saw the future optimistically for both European giants before the knockout phase began. Only Paris Saint-Germain (20.6%) had a higher chance of winning the 2025 Club World Cup among the remaining 16 teams than City (20.4%) and Inter (12.4%).

But everything changed during one Monday. Al-Hilal and Fluminense shocked their more illustrious opponents, sent both European clubs home, and rewrote the entire tournament script.

Fluminense vs Inter: David Defeats Goliath

Before their match against Fluminense in Charlotte, Inter were considered the seventh strongest men's football team in the world according to the Opta Power Rankings, while their Brazilian opponents were down in 181st place, making them the lowest-ranked participant in the knockout stage.

Miracle in Charlotte

This ranking was quickly disproven by an inspired performance from the Brazilian team. Fluminense secured the third victory for Brazilian clubs over European opposition at the FIFA Club World Cup – one more than they've lost (2).

Key Fluminense Statistics:

2-0 victory over Inter
10 matches unbeaten in all competitions (7 wins, 3 draws)
Clean sheets in 5 of their last 6 games

Veterans as Main Heroes

The latest clean sheet was built on outstanding performances from two veterans:

Thiago Silva (40 years old) - captain and defensive anchor, managed to organize the back line against one of Europe's best attacks.

Fábio (44 years and 273 days) - the tournament's oldest player, over a year older than Real Madrid coach Xabi Alonso. Nevertheless, he managed to save all four of Inter's shots on target during 90 minutes, including an excellent close-range save against Lautaro Martínez with the score at 1-0.

Secret of Brazilian Success

Perhaps an overlooked advantage before the tournament was the timing factor for Brazilian clubs. With just 12 matchdays completed out of their 38-game Serie A season, Brazilian teams arrived at this competition fresh, unlike many European clubs coming off long, grueling campaigns. This freshness is evident in their performances.

Al-Hilal vs Manchester City: Fall of the Giant

Fluminense will now face Al-Hilal in the quarterfinal after a thrilling 4-3 extra-time victory over Manchester City – arguably the match of the tournament.

Statistical Massacre

These numbers are admittedly skewed by the additional 30 minutes of extra-time, but this match recorded:

Most shots (47) of any 2025 Club World Cup game
Most shots on target (20)
Highest total xG (7.37)
First match with over 100 touches in the opponent's box

Guardiola's Nightmare

Al-Hilal's 3.16 xG was the third-highest non-penalty xG that Manchester City had ever allowed under Pep Guardiola. Only Real Madrid in February 2025 had higher (3.30) over the past five years.

Shocking Facts:

All 17 of Al-Hilal's shots came from inside City's penalty area
Only in one previous competitive match under Guardiola had City allowed opponents at least 17 shots in the box – that was in January against PSG (20) in their 4-2 Champions League capitulation in Paris

End of Guardiola's Streak

The result ended Guardiola's exceptional run in the competition. The Spaniard entered the match with a 100% record at the Club World Cup (11 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, including previous formats) as a coach, outscoring opponents 38-4 in those matches, including 13-2 in this year's group stage. His teams had won 10 of those 11 matches by a margin of at least two goals.

Probability Analysis: When the Impossible Happens

Although the disparity between these two clubs wasn't as stark as Fluminense and Inter in the Opta Power Rankings, there was still a gap of 66 places (4th vs 70th) on the morning of the match.

Least Likely Results of the Tournament

1. Auckland City 1-1 Boca Juniors (5.4%)

Sensational group stage draw will almost certainly remain the tournament's most unlikely result

2. Botafogo 1-0 PSG (6.4%)

Most unlikely victory according to Opta supercomputer pre-match projections

3. Fluminense 2-0 Inter (7.5%)

Third in the ranking of the tournament's most unlikely results

4. Al-Hilal 4-3 Manchester City (9.9%)

Fourth biggest shock of the 2025 Club World Cup, though it required extra-time

What's Next?

We might yet have another upset in the Round of 16. Liga MX side Monterrey face Bundesliga club Borussia Dortmund in Atlanta in the last match of the round.

Monterrey vs Dortmund: Another Possible Shock?

Before kick-off, the Mexican club are 112 places below Dortmund in the Opta Power Rankings, while the latest match projections see Monterrey progressing to the quarterfinals just 25.1% of the time. It's even lower when considering the result inside 90 minutes only, with Monterrey winning the match without needing extra-time or penalties in just 16.2% of simulations.

New Opportunities: Chelsea as Main Beneficiary

The exits of both Manchester City and Inter have opened up that half of the Club World Cup knockout bracket, and the main beneficiaries are Chelsea.

New Trophy Chances

Chelsea are currently projected to reach the final in 58.0% of the 10,000 tournament simulations – up from 21.2% before the Round of 16.

That half of the draw places them with Fluminense, Al-Hilal, and Palmeiras, but as the tournament has shown so far, underestimate these teams at your peril.

Lessons from Monday's Shock

Why Did European Giants Struggle?

Physical Condition: Brazilian teams arrived fresh, while European clubs were exhausted from long seasons.

Underestimating Opponents: Favorites may not have respected their opponents' quality sufficiently.

Pressure of Expectations: European clubs carried greater pressure for success.

Underdog Mentality: Outsiders played without pressure with nothing to lose.

Historical Context

These results recall football's greatest shocks:

Leicester City 2015/16 Premier League
Iceland at Euro 2016
Montpellier in Ligue 1 2011/12

What Does This Mean for the Tournament's Future?

The 2025 Club World Cup proved that:

Paper form doesn't matter in knockout systems
Brazilian clubs are very dangerous due to their freshness
Every match is open regardless of opponent strength
Young players can surprise on the big stage

Quarterfinal Outlook

With two main favorites eliminated, the tournament has become more unpredictable than ever. Remaining teams:

European clubs: Chelsea, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund (if they advance) Brazilian clubs: Fluminense, Palmeiras Others: Al-Hilal, Monterrey (if they advance)

Conclusion: New Era of Unpredictability

Monday at the 2025 Club World Cup showed that nothing is certain in football. Manchester City and Inter, two of the world's best teams, were humbled by teams nobody considered realistic contenders.

These results remind us why we love football – for its unpredictability, emotions, and ability to surprise us when we least expect it.

The remaining tournament promises more surprises, and if we learn anything from Monday's shock, it's that in knockout football, anyone can beat anyone.

Bottom Line: The day of shocks at the 2025 Club World Cup rewrote the tournament script and showed that there are no certainties in football. Brazilian teams utilized their freshness while European giants fell under the pressure of expectations.

Thanks to Stats Perform for the data and photo.

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