US Open warm-up: McIlroy faces skeptical voices in Toronto

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A week before the prestigious US Open at Oakmont, the world's golf elite is gathering in Toronto, Canada for the RBC Canadian Open 2025. Rory McIlroy arrives as the main favorite with fresh memories of this year's Masters triumph, but experts are skeptical about his chances. The reason is primarily McIlroy's approach to the tournament as merely preparation for the upcoming major.

The Northern Irish golfer, currently world number two, is seeking a hat-trick in the Canadian event after winning the tournament twice before. Bookmakers give him +450 odds for overall victory, making him the clear favorite in a weakened field. Many stars like Scottie Scheffler are taking a rest before the US Open, opening opportunities for less favored players.

TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley after major reconstruction will offer players a technical test on a par 70 course measuring 6,766 meters. The $9.8 million purse provides decent motivation, but for McIlroy it will primarily be about finding form before the more important US Open.

McIlroy's problem is his recent performance at the PGA Championship, where he finished in a tie for 47th place after barely making the cut. Expert Eric Cohen comments: "This is just a tune-up before the U.S. Open," suggesting that McIlroy may not have the right motivation for the Canadian tournament.

Shane Lowry appears as the most interesting alternative to McIlroy. The Irish golfer with +2200 odds for victory has the best chances for an upset according to experts. Lowry owns the third-best approach shot statistics on Tour behind Scheffler, but has been waiting six years for a victory. This year he recorded two second-place finishes at Pebble Beach and the Truist Championship, indicating improving form.

Local hope is represented by Corey Conners, the highest-ranked Canadian at 21st in the world rankings. Conners has recorded ten top-25 finishes from fourteen tournaments this year, demonstrating consistent form. Home advantage and crowd support could be key factors in his favor.

Defending champion Robert MacIntyre arrives with valuable course knowledge. Last year's triumph marked the Scot's first career victory and he will want to prove it wasn't a fluke. The Scottish golf school is known for its precision, which could be an advantage on the technical course.

Ludvig Åberg as world number eight represents young blood with +1400 odds. However, the Swedish talent hasn't recorded a top-10 finish since the Masters, which could be cause for concern about his current form.

Experts see several reasons why McIlroy might not succeed. His "tune-up mentality" toward the US Open could prevent full concentration on the Canadian tournament. Problems with iron play in recent tournaments and pressure of favoritism could be additional factors affecting his performance. The disappointment from the PGA Championship may have also shaken his confidence.

Key battles of the tournament include McIlroy's fight against the pressure of favoritism, Lowry's attempt to break his six-year winless streak, and Conners dealing with home expectations. Åberg will need to prove that his lack of top-10 finishes since the Masters is only a temporary slump.

The tournament begins Thursday with the featured group led by McIlroy, Åberg, and Clanton. Canadian golf gets an opportunity to showcase itself to the world a week before one of the season's most prestigious majors.

For bettors, the weakened field presents an opportunity to find value in less favored players. Shane Lowry with his consistent form and "overdue" status could be the key to a successful wager, while Corey Conners offers an interesting home alternative.