NFL 2025 Predictions: Five Key Insights from Opta Season Projections

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Basic Information:

Model: Opta NFL projection model 2025
Simulations: 1,000 season simulations
Publication: June 25, 2025
Methodology: Team scores, player ratings, roster strength, coaching changes
Updates: Ongoing on NFL predictions page

While some teams will finish where most people expect, our 2025 season projections bring surprising placements among the best and worst teams from last season.

It's never too early to start thinking about how the 2025 NFL season might unfold. Although they haven't reached training camps yet, with free agency, the NFL Draft, and schedule release, we have more than enough to put our projection model to work.

Projection Methodology

Each club received a "team score" based on player ratings, roster depth, and coaching changes. We also analyzed home field advantage for each team based on their point production at home versus away compared to other teams.

From there, teams were evaluated against each other to determine likely wins and losses. This ultimately helped determine playoff probability, divisional results, and more. Simulations include projected ties, so it's important to note that expected win-loss records may not exactly reach 17 games for all teams.

1. Jaguars Will Be the Surprising Breakout Team

Every year, a team emerges from nowhere and shocks the league. Last year it was the Washington Commanders behind NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels. In 2023, it was the Houston Texans.

This year, our model points to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville has the second-highest projected win total (10.4), behind only the Buffalo Bills and ahead of the Chiefs and Eagles. They also have a 76.6% chance of making the playoffs according to our projections.

After a 4-13 collapse last season, the Jaguars appear ready for a sharp turnaround behind a strong core and improved coaching staff.

Key Success Factors

It starts with head coach Liam Coen, who in 2024 improved the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offensive success rate by nearly 5% compared to the average of play-callers before him since 2016. He also comes from the Sean McVay tree, which has produced other good head coaches like Kevin O'Connell, Mike McDaniel, and Matt LaFleur.

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence struggled in 2024 with injuries and poor production, but has the skills to improve this year. Coen has proven he can elevate any already solid quarterback to highly productive after his work with Baker Mayfield last year.

Lawrence will also have a rising star in Brian Thomas at wide receiver and rookie two-way sensation Travis Hunter. Thomas finished thirteenth in burn rate among 39 WRs with at least 100 targets at 63.2% last year.

2. Lions Go from Super Bowl Contenders to Playoff Bubble Team

The Detroit Lions suffered fairly significant losses during the offseason when they lost both their offensive and defensive coordinators. They should also have the second-toughest schedule in 2025.

Despite finishing with the seventh-best team score overall, Detroit is projected to have the seventh-best record in the NFC and a 56.5% chance of making the playoffs. This puts the Lions behind the Packers and Chicago Bears in the division and right on the playoff bubble for a wild-card spot.

Challenges for the Lions

The schedule problem is probably the biggest cause for concern, as the Lions start the season with two divisional games, then face the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Chiefs, and Buccaneers before their Week 8 bye. They also run into the Commanders, Eagles, and Los Angeles Rams - all were playoff teams last year.

The loss of coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn is another issue that could affect Detroit's ability to compete at such a high level this year. Four other teams have lost both their coordinators since 2004, and all four saw declines in their record the following year.

3. Mike Tomlin's Remarkable Streak Ends

Our model predicts that Mike Tomlin's 18 consecutive seasons with at least a .500 record for the Pittsburgh Steelers will end in Aaron Rodgers' first season.

Pittsburgh has the fifth-lowest playoff probability (17.4% as of June 25) in 2025, just ahead of the New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, Las Vegas Raiders, and New Orleans Saints. Pittsburgh's projected 7.0 wins also ranks only slightly better than the aforementioned teams and the Tennessee Titans.

Steelers' Problems

Rodgers could be a good addition to Arthur Smith's offense, but Pittsburgh relied too heavily on defense last year and still lacks a clear identity. The offensive line also allowed the fifth-highest pressure rate and tied for the fifth-highest sack rate at 45.3% and 8.4%.

The Steelers also lost five of their last seven regular season games in 2024 before a wild-card loss to the Ravens. It could be another rough finish with a home game against the Ravens in Week 18 this season.

4. Bills Look Like the Team to Beat

Buffalo has the highest playoff probability (92.7%) by a wide margin. The closest teams are the Chiefs, Jaguars, Buccaneers, and Eagles, all under 77%.

The Bills also have the highest chance of winning the Super Bowl (14.8%), but are projected to have only about one more win than the Chiefs and Jaguars.

Continuity as Key

Continuity is key for Buffalo. The team has the reigning NFL MVP in Josh Allen and several key offensive and defensive players returning in 2025.

The Bills went heavy on defensive acquisitions this offseason as well. The team's first five draft picks were on the defensive side of the ball, including first-round CB Maxwell Hairston. Buffalo also spent money on more free agents like OLB Joey Bosa and DE Michael Hoecht.

5. Who Are the New Playoff Teams?

Every year there are new playoff teams, and 2025 will be no different. Our model predicts four new teams: the Bears and San Francisco 49ers from the NFC, and the Jaguars and Bengals from the AFC.

Analysis of New Teams

The 49ers have the easiest strength of schedule and should be healthy after a 2024 season full of injuries. The Bears looked solid in 2024 but couldn't find wins due to mostly poor coaching. Now they'll have a new head coach in ex-Lions coordinator Ben Johnson.

The Bengals would easily make the playoffs if their defense could stop anyone. Cincinnati returns their entire offensive core led by Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins.

Conclusion

The NFL is defined by its volatility - every season brings unexpected twists, new stars, and sudden failures. While no projection model can fully account for injuries, unknown heroes, or coaching breakthroughs, the data gives us a strong sense of where things stand heading into 2025.

The best teams are relatively the same, with Buffalo appearing ready to jump from perennial contender to league standard. Others like Jacksonville appear ready to flip the script, while the Lions may be in for a reality check after last year's heights.

Thanks to Opta Stats Perform for the data.
Photo: NFL Media