Finding diamonds in late rounds: Which NFL rookie will surprise like Puka Nacua?

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NFL teams annually hunt for hidden gems in late draft rounds, especially at offensive positions. Two years ago, the Los Angeles Rams drafted Puka Nacua in the fifth round, and he subsequently broke all rookie records with 1,483 receiving yards in the regular season. His success inspired the search for similar talents in this year's draft.

Analysis based on Nacua's characteristics reveals five key rules for identifying potential breakout players among wide receivers drafted in 2025. While last year's attempt to find "the next Nacua" didn't pan out as expected, it created a solid foundation for this year's predictions.

The first rule requires selection on Day 3 of the draft - fourth round or later. Nacua was picked 177th overall in 2023, showing that teams passed on available players multiple times. This year's pool contains eighteen candidates from the fourth through seventh rounds.

The second criterion focuses on underwhelming college statistics. Nacua never achieved more than 48 catches, 805 receiving yards, or six touchdowns in a season. This "mediocrity" contributed to his fall to late rounds but showed NFL potential hidden beneath average numbers.

Applying this filter leaves only players with fewer than sixty catches or 900 receiving yards in their final college season. Jalen Royals and Tory Horton were eliminated due to injuries, not performance.

The third rule evaluates target rate - how often a player was the target of a pass. Nacua had a high target rate in BYU's run-focused offense, which directly translated to his usage with the Rams. Six remaining players exceeded twenty-one percent: Dominic Lovett, Chimere Dike, Dont'e Thornton Jr., Kaden Prather, Jaylin Lane, and Jimmy Horn Jr.

Lovett with 26 percent and Horn with 23.8 percent stand out in this category, but the fourth rule eliminates them. Per-route production analysis shows the ability not only to be targeted but also to catch passes and create yards.

Thornton separates himself from the competition at this stage. His 0.167 receptions per route run ranks fourth among all Day 3 receivers, while his 4.24 yards per route run is best in this group. Lovett and Horn lag in yardage production despite high target rates.

The fifth and decisive rule concerns opportunity for immediate playing time. Nacua succeeded because he fit into a role vacated by Cooper Kupp's injury. Current depth charts of candidates show different scenarios.

Lovett with the Detroit Lions faces competition from Amon St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and other established players. Horn with the Carolina Panthers battles veteran Adam Thielen and draft pick Tetairoa McMillan. Both will likely start deep in the rotation.

Thornton with the Las Vegas Raiders has the clearest path to playing time. Beyond tight end Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers, the wide receiver rotation remains unclear. Tre Tucker and second-rounder Jack Bech are competition, but a quality camp or injury could elevate Thornton to prominence.

The Raiders also provide a stable environment with quarterback Geno Smith and a strong running game supported by first-rounder Ashton Jeanty. Thornton's college production of 65 catches for 1,426 yards across Oregon and Tennessee demonstrates consistent abilities.

The combination of all five factors makes Dont'e Thornton Jr. the most likely candidate for a Nacua-like rise. His statistical analysis, target rate, per-route efficiency, and opportunity for immediate playing time create the ideal cocktail for surprising success.

The 2025 season will show whether this prediction based on the Nacua model brings another story of a hidden treasure discovered in the late rounds of the NFL draft.