NEWCOMER KIEL SEEKS THIRD CONSECUTIVE WIN AGAINST CHAMPIONS LEAGUE-CHASING FREIBURG

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May 10, 2025 

Holstein Kiel - SC Freiburg 

Holstein-Stadion, Kiel, Germany

On Saturday, May 10, 2025, Bundesliga newcomer Holstein Kiel will face SC Freiburg in the 33rd round of the German top flight. While the home team is fighting for survival in the highest division, the visitors from Freiburg are in a sensational fourth place in the table and battling for participation in the Champions League.

SC Freiburg and Holstein Kiel have only previously met twice in professional football. The "Storks," as the Kiel team is nicknamed, won 2-1 at home in the second round of the 2018/19 DFB-Pokal, while Freiburg secured a 3-2 home victory earlier this season.

SC Freiburg have only won one of their last seven Bundesliga games away at league debutants (2 draws, 4 losses): 2-1 at Greuther Fürth in May 2013. They have lost each of their last three such fixtures, scoring two goals and conceding nine. Their most recent trip to a top-flight debutant saw them lose 3-2 in Heidenheim last season.

SC Freiburg are unbeaten in four Bundesliga games, claiming 10 points (3 wins, 1 draw) – no team has picked up more since the start of matchday 29. SCF are even on a six-game undefeated run away from home (4 wins, 2 draws), their longest streak since the turn of the year in 2012/13 (also 6) – they can now equal their club record if they avoid defeat in Kiel (7 games from 1997 to 1998 – including a season in the second division).

Holstein Kiel have won back-to-back Bundesliga games for the first time in history (3-1 in Augsburg, previously 4-3 against Gladbach), exactly as many victories as they managed from their previous 15 league matches combined. Dortmund are the only other team to have taken maximum points from the last two matchdays. The Storks are also on a three-game unbeaten run for the first time in the top flight (2 wins, 1 draw).

Fourth-place SC Freiburg currently have a goal difference of -3 – no side to have been in the top four after 32 matchdays has ever had a worse goal difference. SCF are just the third club to be in the top four at this stage of the season with a negative goal difference (previously only KFC Uerdingen in 1985/86 with -1 and Hertha BSC in 1999/2000 also with -3).

No team has kept more clean sheets away from home than SC Freiburg this season (7, same as RB Leipzig), a joint club record for a top-flight season (together with 2022/23). Holstein Kiel have only kept two clean sheets overall in 2024/25, a league low.

Holstein Kiel have scored 29 Bundesliga goals in 2025, the fifth most in the division. The Storks have overperformed their Expected Goals value by 7.0 goals this calendar year (22.0 xG), a league high. SC Freiburg rank fourth in this regard, having scored 4.6 more goals than expected (25 goals from 20.4 xG).

Holstein Kiel's Shuto Machino has now scored in three consecutive Bundesliga games for the first time, netting four goals in the process – no other player has been more prolific over the last three matchdays. Only two Japanese players have ever scored more goals in a Bundesliga campaign than Machino's tally of 11 in 2024/25: Shinji Okazaki in 2013/14 (15) and 2014/15 (12), and Shinji Kagawa in 2011/12 (13).

Holstein Kiel's Alexander Bernhardsson scored his first Bundesliga brace last time out in what was his 17th appearance in the division. No Bundesliga player has scored more goals than the Swede since the start of April (5). Only Shuto Machino (12) has had a hand in more goals for the Storks this season than Bernhardsson (9; 7 goals, 2 assists).

Holstein Kiel's Nicolai Remberg is suspended after picking up five yellow cards. He's played the most minutes of any KSV player this season (2,322) and has also taken the most touches (1,353). The Storks average just 0.3 points per game without him in the starting XI in 2024/25 compared to 0.9 with him.

Saturday's clash thus offers a battle between a team in growing form experiencing the top flight for the first time in history and a team fighting for a sensational Champions League qualification, albeit with an unusually negative goal difference.

Photo: source XYZ 

We thank OPTA for providing the statistical data.

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