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Arsenal v Real Madrid

April 8th, 2025

After almost two decades, the giants of European football meet again. Arsenal and Real Madrid last faced each other in the 2005/06 season when they met in the Champions League round of 16. That encounter ended with a surprising progression of the London side, which won 1-0 in Madrid and maintained a goalless draw at home. They thus became one of only two English teams (along with Liverpool) that remained undefeated in their first three duels with Real in European competitions.

However, Real Madrid has since gained rich experience with English clubs. Since the 2017/18 season, the White Ballet has played an incredible 22 matches against Premier League teams in the knockout phase of the Champions League (11 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses), which is 10 more than any other team has against sides from one specific country.

The reigning champions are true specialists in first-leg knockout matches. In the last eight cases, they haven't lost the opening duel (5 wins, 3 draws), which is their longest such streak since April 2016 to February 2019, when they also didn't lose eight opening matches in a row.

Arsenal can boast excellent defense. In this season's Champions League, the Gunners have the lowest expected goals against per match (0.88), and only Internazionale Milan concedes fewer goals per match than the London side (0.6). In their history, Arsenal received fewer goals per match in European competitions only in the 2005/06 season (0.31), when they reached the final.

The Gunners are also masters at leading matches. In this season's Champions League, they have led for a total of 568 minutes, which is the most of all teams. Conversely, they have trailed for only 65 minutes, with only Internazionale spending less time behind (5 minutes).

The main threat from the Madrid giant will be Kylian Mbappé. The French superstar has already scored 10 goals against English teams in the Champions League in 16 matches, four of which he recorded this season in the play-off round against Manchester City. The only player who scored more goals against English teams in the knockout phase in one season is Karim Benzema - seven goals in five duels for Real Madrid in the 2021/22 season.

The match could also be historic for Arsenal's young talents. Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri (both 18 years old) have a chance to become only the second and third English teenagers to ever play in a Champions League quarter-final. So far, the only such player is Jude Bellingham, who played against Manchester City in April 2021 at the age of 17.

The tireless 39-year-old Luka Modrić could play a key role. The Croatian legend averages 17.5 defense-breaking passes per 90 minutes in this season's Champions League, which is the most of all players with more than 500 minutes played. In the last match against Atlético Madrid, he recorded 12 such passes, although he played only 66 minutes - only Fede Valverde had more (13).

In goal for both teams, we can look forward to a duel of goalkeepers who are among the five best in the competition in terms of saved goals ratio. Arsenal's David Raya is one of the goalkeepers who, according to expected goals statistics, have saved their teams the most goals in this year's Champions League.

We thank OPTA for providing the statistical data.

Photo: source XYZ




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